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Multiple machines, multiple OSs, narrowing apps?
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Posted by Paul Korm
Jun 16, 2019 at 12:48 PM
I have no doubt, as @washere argues, that Linux will continue to make inroads. I’m just not sure in what domains “Linux will be king”. Certainly Linux penetration is growing with AWS and others delivering cloud services, as well as in government clouds (especially mission-critical applications), and corporate clouds. It’s hard to get good comprehensive numbers for penetration across all environments. On the consumer side—for predicting what Joe- and Jane-on-the-street will buy—I agree there will be significant convergence, but I’m fuzzy on the future dynamics that will drive adoption one way or the other.
The future will have a lot to do with how the tech industry addresses privacy, identity protection, revenue streams, etc.
Posted by washere
Jun 16, 2019 at 02:20 PM
It’s a gradual shift.
Firstly as pointed out linux is not one but many. The top ones are getting better, gradually in stages. Some interesting ones are in the lab, with a lot of funding and will come out in the next year or two.
Plus More serious open source apps available for all users. Also many distros have step by step under the bonnet upgrades, not complete reinstall of upgrades. Stateless: you can upgrade easily or move the whole thing to another (higher spec) machine etc etc. Even with user configs. etc etc They add up.
Another factor is the big tech Giants are messing up. Microsoft wants to change Windows. Google is getting more and more intrusive and a mega big brother. Apple has taken off it’s eye off the computer to focus on other devices, tv, wearables etc etc, they’re even secretly working on an electric car they’ve spent billions on.
Also other big corporations are funding many Linux distros to fight back MS Apple and Google. Those distros unlike the top three are open source. Add that to the fact that these lesser corps are hardware manufacturers supporting their drivers, it’s already getting better to run things smooth. In time it will be better than even MS drivers because unlike MS these are hardware manufacturer corps. Not yet, but a few years time.
Privacy: it’s not just the big the tech Giants in OS. Most online apps have access to one’s data and you can say they’re not going to delete it once they move to their next scheme. Where will it end up? No one knows now.
Spam: much of online discussion areas have turned into spam for subscription based apps. If you point out something, specially with respect to security, or consumer rights one gets attacked by the spammer and organized trols. This is on all social media and had spread to forums too. So many don’t have time to comment on spam and get attacked by the spammer & gang. Of course one finds out elsewhere the spammer confesses secretly he doesn’t subscribe to 99% of what they advertise as “reputable online influencers” which is a very lucrative source of revenue these days online.
Ads and evermore spam is one thing, but where the data goes? What else is installed to run 24/7 on systems by them? As license checker processes or just plain spyware by these spammed apps? A lot of commercial companies and users need to investigate to keep clients and prevent future legal and other headaches. Linux has advantages as it gives back more control to the OS and the admin and helps monitoring with intrusive apps running constantly in the background and other security or data abuse issues. This is why many love it vs MS or Google.
There is no single distro now that can turn the masses away from Windows onto Linux, but in two years there will be. Again, it’s a gradual shift in favor of open source and Linux, accelerated by greed on the other side at all levels. It’ll take time but enough people have had enough and it’s growing louder and the threshold and the singularity topping point will be reached.
The strategic butterfly has flapped her wings and the massive consequences are in motion.
Posted by washere
Jun 16, 2019 at 02:25 PM
Phone swipe typo: singularity tipping point
Posted by Paul Korm
Jun 16, 2019 at 03:26 PM
How does IOT play into that future, @washere?
Posted by washere
Jun 16, 2019 at 04:30 PM
It’ll be important. My personal prediction is the key will be ways to monetize the little networks, ie iot swarms, initially at homes. Whoever figures that out will be king of hardware protocols for two decades, including houseware stuff and then data which is worth a lot more. Then street, local and City scales of that too. If I had to say, the Google’s ai mellow guy is not as good as bezos’ guy who is a beast and Amazon will win that.
It’s not just iot. There’s a lot more serious levels ahead. Let’s just say I know a thing or two or more about ai. current talk of iot or ai will seem like Flintstones in fifty years NVM a hundred. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
Then there’s even more important strategic plateaus to emerge as Deleuze would say. It depends, will USA remain hegemonic in hard and soft power or will it be China? No one knows now for sure but that hegemony will determine the shape of things to come as previous elite’s ideologues used to say. Let’s just say if it’s China, things are not going to be pretty. See yesterday’s article in WaPo about how things change fast nowadays. How can we predict thirty years ahead or fifty or a hundred.
Then there wil be even more important factors shaping this century beyond global strategies but those are beyond this Forum’s specialty really.
As far as iot which is one of many shells to come for ai in general: There are different fields one can discuss these devices. To make fortunes from as in valley ventures? Mass userbase impact? Cultural? Science, technical & engineering papers? Philosophical? etc. All are different topics.
In terms of infrastructure whoever develops the best protocols for packet sharing and gives extra free service to these intranet swarms will make a fortune, but only for a decade or two. Of course all the big powers, state or corps, want a backdoor, which at that level is really undectable even before ai. Which is what the Huawei news is all about.
Huawei is a state owned military Intel corp in disguise as a private company. Yesterday Spain said yes to 5g infrastructure by Huawei. Foot in the door in the Western grid, EU, for China. Either enough big money changed hands and bought out, like Italy recently, and/or not happy why USA not telling them details of the Huawei backdoor. 5g is speed, after that it’ll be control via locations (home/business/buildings/ngo) smart intranet protocols, iot etc. Then after that semi-ai. Full ai, no one’s got yet, even in secret.